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A mere two months in the past when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as Unai Emery admonished him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, the question was whether Rogers' form were a sign or the source of the side's wider issues.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

In the latest match, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. As the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, Emery ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. Villa marched on to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, now sit only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?

It remains a rather hard query to resolve. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, while the positive results have stacked up.

Per statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa registered an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a club that have just won a ten-match winning streak, they seem strangely fragile – but at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.

The Winning Formula

The current approach seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for their talisman to bail them out with a couple of precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again against Manchester United.

The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opposition managed more shots and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.

Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival they must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling the football into the top corner week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.

• Ollie Watkins might resume scoring again.
• The winger could transform into the force he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky backline.

Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt earlier this season, few could imagine the young forward as the year closed would be spearheading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a vital Three Lions star.

The current run is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. When Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.